我們主要研究社會養(yǎng)老保險和商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險關(guān)系。社會養(yǎng)老保險和商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險是中國社會保障制度的兩大基礎(chǔ)。是它們之間的關(guān)系是什么？替代品還是補充？該假設(shè)是，商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險的發(fā)展具有相對于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平得庫茲涅茨效應(yīng)。在經(jīng)濟水平低，社會養(yǎng)老保險與商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險是互補的，社會養(yǎng)老保險的發(fā)展將促進商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險的需求。而在經(jīng)濟水平高的情況下，他們是可替代的，社會養(yǎng)老保險的發(fā)展將擠壓商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險的需求。商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險的市場份額上升，再下降相對于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平，即庫茲涅茨效應(yīng)。

　　In this paper we study the relationship between social endowment insurance and commercial endowment insurance. Social endowment insurance and commercial endowment insurance are the two fundamentals of China's social security system. What's the relationship between them? Substitutes or complements? The hypothesis is that the development of commercial endowment insurance has Kuznets effect with respect to the economic development level. At the low economic level, social endowment insurance and commercial endowment insurance are complements and the development of social endowment insurance will promote the demand of commercial endowment insurance. While at the high economic level they are substitutes and the development of social endowment insurance will squeeze the demand for commercial endowment insurance. The market share of commercial endowment insurance goes up first, then goes down with respect to economic development level, i.e., the Kuznets effect.